A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
